A video pops up in my feed.   A bright eyed, enthusiastic, young entrepreneur attempted to dazzle me with his vision of new professional measuring tape.  This tape can do anything, and if I was to invest in the project, I would be promised returns in the form of discounts and early access to developmental new “even better’ tape measures.

This is the life of the Kickstarter, using crowdsourcing and crowdfunding to make his dreams come true. The only thing standing between success and failure is his ability to convince people to invest… it is all on his shoulders.

On the 5 April 2022, a similarly passionate man was broadcast to my feed.  This time the man spoke eloquently and powerfully about the need for all of us to back him.  He appealed for support, financial investment, and contributions of technology… and the world listened.  Zelensky, like our Kickstarter friend, was crowdsourcing.

Evolution of warfare?

At 360iSR we have spoken at length about the fifth-generation war and hinted at the next, sixth generation, evolution.  I think, in Ukraine we have seen the emergence of a new mechanism of conflict which could see the re-imagining of war; that is a war by crowdsourcing.  We have had proxy wars for hundreds, if not thousands of years, a war fought between two states or non-state actors which act on the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities.  These other actors often remain the hidden puppet masters pulling invisible threads.  But in the Ukraine War, other actors are not hidden, nor do they have the Ukraine fight on their behalf.  Instead the Ukraine fights for survival and is funded and openly reinforced by allies.  When supplies become short or a new threat needs to be countered, Zelensky makes another powerful address to his crowd source.

This is a significant evolution on many levels.  Firstly, to sell anything, you need to create a demand.  In the case of conflict you need to galvanise an audience against a common enemy.  This galvanisation of a group is key to fifth generation war; however it is often associated with the galvanisation of a section of the public.  The ‘sell’ by Zelensky was to the global audience but targeted at the leaders of the EU and NATO.  Like most pitches, the success depends on many factors, but mainly the charisma of the seller, the need for the product and the value for money.  Both targeted and untargeted benefactors came forward with support.  Military hardware, offer of training and logistical support came flooding in from the EU and NATO, but interestingly, other, non-combatant and uncontrolled supporters rallied to the flag such as Anonymous. 

So what?

What does this mean for the Military Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Divisions?  The short answer is “a great deal”. The purpose of ISR is to create #understandingattempo.  This is achieved by collecting data that has been specified by a requestor (decision maker), analysing that data, and creating intelligence.  Traditionally the ISR capability has been operating in the physical domain to understand cause and effect of actions, both friendly force and adversary force.  It was seen in the Ukraine that ISR was very good at finding hardware: convoys of Russian vehicles approaching Kyiv and we are well trained in synchronising the development of Understanding to support decision making and the measurement of effects.  However, the ISR force now needs to consider broader issues.

The convoy is an interesting example. Traditionally, a 60km long adversary convoy approaching Kyiv, would be considered a valid military target.  However, the western powers were not directly engaging targets, merely offering support to the Ukraine.  Therefore the detection of the convoy did not support traditional targeting decisions, however it did inform ‘soft’ targeting decisions.  The images of the convoy were used to convey the aggressive and ‘barbaric’ tactics employed by Russia.  By doing so the narrative to support the Ukraine was re-enforced.  EU and NATO governments could create public support and garner improvements in opinion polls as they openly condemned the Russian aggression and, at the same time, applauded Zelensky and the Ukraine for heroic actions.  Therefore ISR was supporting strategic, national decision making the effects of which were targeted against a domestic public with the end state of improved public support for Ukraine and improved ‘ratings’.

360iSR

ISR is once again at the forefront of modern warfare.  As countries embrace multi and all domain operations, it should be noted that ISR is already there, operating in the physical, information and cognitive domains.  360iSR are constantly developing new ways in which to conduct contemporary ISR.  The modern mission space is evolving, if your operational support company is not, it may be time to give us a call.